Jimmy Kimmel LA Bowl Prediction: Mountain West Champion Fresno State Takes on Washington State – AthlonSports.com
The first big slate of the college football bowl season kicks off Saturday with possibly the best game of the day with the Washington State Cougars taking on the Fresno State Bulldogs. Despite the West Coast locations of both schools, this will only be the fourth time that the Bulldogs and Cougars have met on the gridiron and the first meeting in 28 years.
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Fresno State (9-4) enters Saturday riding an eight-game win streak, capped off by a dominant performance in the Mountain West Championship Game, defeating preseason conference favorite Boise State 28-16. The Bulldogs are led by a veteran group offensively that finished the regular season second in the conference, averaging 395 yards per game behind senior quarterback Jake Haener. Defensively, they were as stout as any team in the conference to close the year, limiting the last three opponents to just 30 combined points.
As for Washington State (7-5), it was a successful debut season under first-year head coach Jake Dickert, finishing the year seventh in the Pac-12 standings. The Cougars won three of their last four regular-season games to secure bowl eligibility. Typically, one of the higher-scoring teams in the nation, the biggest surprise came on defense where Wazzu finished third in the conference in scoring at just 22.4 points per game.
Washington State opened up as a slight favorite when the lines first came out but that has shifted to Fresno State’s side. Why the dramatic swing? Let’s dive in.
Jimmy Kimmel LA Bowl Presented by Stifel: Washington State (7-5) vs. Fresno State (9-4)
Kick off: Saturday, Dec 17 at 3:30pm ET
Where: SoFi Stadium (Englewood, Calif.)
TV: ABC
live streaming: fuboTV (Start your free trial)
Spread: Fresno State -3.5
Tickets: As low as $38 on SITickets.com*
When Washington State Has the Ball
As alluded to above, let’s start with why Washington State is now the underdog on Saturday. First and foremost, head coach Jake Dickert will be without both of his coordinators as OC Eric Morris is now the head coach at North Texas, while defensive coordinator Brian Ward was hired to the same position at Arizona State. If that wasn’t enough, Washington State also has personnel departures with two starting receivers in De’Zhaun Stribling and Donovan Ollie both hitting the portal and Renard Bell won’t play either. On top of that, linebacker Daiyan Henley, a first-team All-Pac-12 selection, has opted out in preparation for the NFL draft. woof
With that said, the most important pieces are still expected to play for Wazzu, most notably quarterback Cameron Ward who has completed 64 percent of his passes for 3,094 yards and 23 touchdowns during the regular season. At first glance, those would appear to be good numbers for a collegiate starting quarterback, but the offense never did click to the levels most expected under Ward/Morris, who were both making the transition from the FCS level (Incarnate Word). With the defections in the receiving room, expect slot-man Robert Ferrel, another IUW transfer, to be Ward’s top target. He posted 46 receptions and four touchdowns during the regular season.
In the backfield, former Wisconsin transfer Nakia Watson has had a strong year with 736 rushing yards and 12 total touchdowns. Watson hit a groove late, averaging 6.2 yards per carry over the last four weeks, with seven of his eight rushing scores coming in that span. Washington State should have the advantage in the trenches, facing a Fresno State run defense that has allowed five of its last six opponents to average more than four yards a carry.
When Fresno State Has the Ball
No surprise that Fresno State’s eight-game win streak was catapulted by the return of senior quarterback Jake Haener, who missed four games during the regular season due to injury. Despite Haener being out for nearly a month, Fresno State still wound up leading the Mountain West in passing, averaging 269 yards per game through the air. Haener ranks among the FBS leaders with a 72.6 percent completion rate and only three interceptions. Unlike North Texas, the Bulldogs’ passing attack should be close to full strength on Saturday with a pair of all-conference performers in receivers Jalen Moreno-Cropper and Nikko Remigio leading the way. The duo has been responsible for more than half of the team’s receiving production this season.
Fresno State also boasts one of the more balanced offenses in the country with veteran running back Jordan Mims going over 1,100 yards (1,161 with 16 TDs) in his first full season as a starter. While the Fresno offensive line did not perform up to expectations, ranking 96th this season in line yards, they’ll be facing a Washington State front seven without a pair of impact performers. The aforementioned Henley will be sitting out in preparation for the draft while fellow starting linebacker Francisco Mauigoa, who is fourth on the team in tackles, has entered the transfer portal.
final analysis
If both teams were at full strength, Washington State would have the advantage, at least on paper. But the Cougars are down both coordinators as well as the numerous personnel departures on both sides of the ball. Fresno State should be close to full strength on Saturday and will close out the year with a victory for their star seniors to cap off their championship-winning season.
Prediction: Fresno State 24, Washington State 20
Podcast: Remembering Mike Leach, Preview of Bowl Games Dec. 16-21, Recapping the Heisman Race and Purdue’s Hire of Ryan Walters
— Written by Mike Bainbridge, who is part of the Athlon Contributor Network. Bainbridge is a graduate of Northern Illinois University. Follow him on Twitter @MBainbridgeCFF.
*Price as of publication.