Heading into Week 10 of FCS play, some teams begin to lose motivation as their hopes of a chance at the postseason are all but gone. As a result, I won’t go out of the way to force a third bet on a game I’m not confident in.
Instead, I’ll stick with two games I love this week, both of which include teams I believe will be far from lacking in motivation.
FCS College Football Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent the matchups that I’m betting from Saturday’s FCS college football games. Click the team logos for one of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
|1pm ET||Princeton -13.5|
||3pm ET||Sacramento State ML-170|
|Specific bet recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.|
Dartmouth vs Princeton
The last time Princeton lost a game will be exactly a year ago on Saturday, and it’ll once again face the team that gave it that loss: Dartmouth.
Last year’s loss was a wild one for the Tigers, who had scored 18 or more points in every game before and after. Princeton lost in blowout fashion, falling 31-7 at the hands of the Big Green.
I don’t expect a similar fate for the Tigers this year. Dartmouth is just 2-5 on the season and 1-3 in conference play. The Big Green have the worst scoring offense in the Ivy League and rank fifth on the defensive end, allowing teams to score an average 23.4 points per game.
Princeton, meanwhile, leads the league in both, racking up 31.7 points per contest while holding the opposition to 11.
My only concern for this game will be where the spread falls. Dartmouth’s ability to slow down games and keep them low-scoring is undeniable. It held the second-best scoring offense in the conference — Penn — to just 23 points as a 14-point underdog.
I’m confident in Princeton’s ability to win this game, but I wouldn’t back it any higher than -13.5 favorite in this matchup. And it very well could end up being higher than that, in which case I’ll look for a slow start and hope to catch the Tigers live.
Pick: Princeton -13.5 or Better
Sacramento State vs Weber State
Saturday’s top-five matchup in the Big Sky will be one of the most important games in the last three weeks of the season when it comes to rankings and playoff selections.
The Wildcats and Hornets enter the matchup with this being their third ranked game in as many weeks for both schools.
Sac State remains undefeated and in search of a perfect 11-0 season. Meanwhile, Weber State is 7-1 with its only loss coming against conference foe and current No. 3 team Montana State.
A win for Weber State followed by it handling business the last two games of the season could put it as high as a 3-seed in the FCS Playoffs. A win for Sacramento State, however, would be a major step in its pursuit of an undefeated regular season and the No. 1 seed.
Sacramento State boasts the Big Sky’s leading offense and No. 3 scoring defense. It’s offense is led by the sixth-best back in FCS in Cameron Skattebo, who’s averaging 123.1 rush yards per game. He also comes in at second in yards per carry, posting an astounding number of 7.8.
The Hornets will be challenged by the Wildcats and their third-ranked rush defense in the Big Sky that holds opponents to just 115 rush yards per game.
However, they seemed rather effective against Montana and the best rush defense in the conference. Sacramento State recorded 180 yards on the ground and two touchdowns against a Grizzlies defense that had held teams to less than 100 yards rushing per game prior.
Weber State relies heavily on the run as well but hasn’t been as productive. Plus, it’ll be going up against a Hornets defense that ranks slightly ahead of it when it comes to stopping the run.
And while the Wildcats do lead the conference in interceptions, I would hope Sacramento State learned their lesson against the fourth-ranked Grizzlies, who picked the Hornets off three times nearly giving them their first loss of the season.
The Wildcats defense also has a significant upper hand where it matters most: in the red zone. No FCS team has been better in that area than Weber State, which gives up points on just 60% of opponents trips in the red zone.
Sacramento State is a strong offense that ranks 23rd in red-zone scoring, but there’s no doubt the Wildcats will be a test. The Hornets are no strangers to being tested, though.
In the last two weeks, they’ve faced a Montana squad that challenged their best asset in the run game and an Idaho team that ranks near the top of the Big Sky in nearly every defensive metric.
They came away from both with wins, and I think they’ll do the same at Weber State. I don’t put much stock into it being a road game, as the Hornets took down FBS Colorado State on the road.
I expect this to be a close spread and would like to back the Hornets on the money line if it’s not too juiced. Anything at -170 or better will be a bet on Sacramento State to stay perfect.
Pick: Sacramento State ML -170 or Better
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